Ghanaian economic policy analyst Senyo Hosi has described the country’s recent currency recovery as an unexpected development under an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported programme.
According to Hosi, the speed and timing of the cedi’s appreciation stand out from what is typically observed in countries undergoing IMF-backed economic adjustments. He explained that IMF research usually associates such programmes with sharper currency depreciation during the adjustment phase, rather than early recovery.
“Our currency appreciation is a surprise and an outlier because it happened too soon,” Hosi noted, adding that academic studies linked to the IMF often view depreciation as a necessary component of balance-of-payments correction.
Hosi argued that these models failed to account for Ghana-specific behavioural factors, particularly the tendency for gold smuggling. He explained that policy interventions under the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP) changed incentives by formalising gold exports, which in turn strengthened foreign exchange inflows.
On inflation, Hosi pointed to IMF commentary that links currency stability to price moderation. He stated that the appreciation of the cedi, driven in part by the GoldBod initiative, played a major role in easing inflationary pressures.
“There is no denying that the GOLDBOD-inspired appreciation contributed significantly to reducing inflation from 24 percent in 2024 to 6.3 percent by November 2025,” he said.
Despite these gains, Hosi cautioned against complacency. He warned that Ghana’s continued reliance on commodities exposes the economy to external shocks and limits long-term resilience.
“We cannot continue to be commodity-dependent,” he stressed. “Policy must focus on reducing or eliminating this vulnerability and building a more resilient economic structure.”
He also called for better alignment between Bank of Ghana exchange rates and open market rates, warning that persistent disparities are counterproductive and result in foreign exchange losses.
Concluding his remarks, Hosi emphasised Ghana’s growing confidence in shaping its own economic path. “We have the expertise,” he said. “We are writing the rulebook in Ghana, not in Washington, and that is genuine progress.”
Source: Mynewsgh
0 Comments