Putin's Stubbornness Will Lead to Russia's Economic and Geopolitical Collapse

 

Vladimir Putin is driving Russia to ruin. The war in Ukraine has spiraled into an unmitigated disaster, causing deep economic, financial, and geopolitical harm to the country. Despite mounting losses, Putin stubbornly persists in his destructive policies, seemingly oblivious to the consequences for ordinary Russians.

Last week, former U.S. President Donald Trump offered Putin a potential lifeline in the form of a “peace” deal, one that would reward Russia’s aggression by carving up Ukrainian land and undermining Kyiv's sovereignty. In return, it promised to weaken NATO and bolster Russia’s pariah economy. It was, in effect, a plan designed to keep Putin's regime afloat. Yet, Putin rejected the offer, convinced that he can achieve even more through continued warfare.

This belief is fundamentally flawed. After nearly four years of conflict, Putin is still bogged down in the Donbas region, unable to secure a decisive victory despite overwhelming military superiority. Meanwhile, back home, Russia is on the brink of economic collapse.

Oil and gas revenues—key pillars of the Russian economy—have plunged by 27%, and inflation is skyrocketing. Interest rates are over 16%, the budget deficit is expanding, and Russia's sovereign wealth fund is rapidly depleting. As a result, taxes are soaring, and even the price of vodka has risen by 5%, as ordinary Russians bear the brunt of the economic fallout.

The situation is made worse by Ukraine's growing ability to target Russia’s energy infrastructure. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian naval drones have set fire to Russian oil tankers, while energy facilities deep within Russia’s borders are regularly struck, creating fuel shortages and panic. Major energy firms like Rosneft and Lukoil are struggling as foreign buyers avoid Russian oil for fear of sanctions.

Geopolitically, Russia's influence is diminishing fast. Once a powerful force in the Middle East, Moscow has seen its alliances erode, with Syria turning to the West and Iran under attack from both the U.S. and Israel. In Latin America, Venezuela is now seeking support in vain, while relations with China have soured, with Russia relegated to the role of a junior partner.

Despite these setbacks, Putin’s regime continues to cling to a narrative of victory on the battlefield. However, the reality is that Russia’s gains are minimal. The war has cost Russia dearly in terms of lives—more than 280,000 casualties in 2025 alone—and it has achieved little on the ground.

Putin’s refusal to end the war has led to mounting casualties among Russian soldiers, particularly from impoverished rural areas. These soldiers, often given the grim choice of death or "glory" in service to a misguided imperialist vision, are often promised death benefits that have now been slashed due to budget cuts. The government’s willingness to sacrifice its own people for a war that seems increasingly unwinnable speaks to a larger indifference to the suffering of its citizens.

Russia’s economy, already on a downward trajectory, is increasingly marked by social division. While some elites continue to profit from the war, the majority of Russians are suffering real income losses. A report from the London School of Economics paints a bleak picture, forecasting deeper economic distress and growing tensions within the Kremlin.

Trump’s recent involvement in the peace process has only further prolonged the conflict. His constant attempts to undermine Ukraine and sideline European efforts have emboldened Putin and undermined international solidarity. Europe and NATO must step up their support for Ukraine with more weapons, tighter sanctions on Russian energy exports, and a unified front against Russia’s destabilizing actions.

In the end, Russia’s proud history cannot save it from the folly of one man’s delusions. Putin is not winning—he is losing, both on the battlefield and at home. His stubbornness may yet lead to his downfall, and, like many autocrats before him, his grip on power will likely crumble under the weight of his own disastrous choices.

Source: Theguardian.com