Major Winter Storm Could Bring Over a Foot of Snow to New York City and New Jersey

A powerful coastal storm is expected to impact the Tri-State area this weekend, with forecasters warning that parts of New York City and New Jersey could receive more than a foot of snow. Meteorologists say the system may strengthen into a significant nor’easter, raising the possibility of blizzard-like conditions from Sunday evening into Monday morning.

According to chief meteorologist Nick Gregory of FOX 5 New York, several forecast models indicate that snowfall totals in the New York City area could exceed 12 inches if the storm tracks closer to the coast. The heaviest snow is currently projected to fall late Sunday through early Monday, potentially disrupting the Monday morning commute.

Storm Timing and Potential Impacts

Forecasters are monitoring the development of a coastal low-pressure system that is expected to move offshore on Sunday before intensifying. If conditions align, the storm could produce heavy snow bands, strong winds, and reduced visibility — hallmarks of blizzard conditions.

While Saturday is forecast to remain relatively mild and mostly dry, colder air is expected to settle into the region by Sunday. Snow could begin developing Sunday afternoon or evening, becoming steadier overnight. Travel conditions may deteriorate rapidly, especially during the early hours of Monday.

Model Differences and Forecast Uncertainty

Meteorologists are evaluating several leading forecast models, each offering slightly different scenarios. The Global Forecast System (GFS), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, presents a more aggressive outlook, suggesting widespread snowfall totals between 12 and 16 inches in parts of the region.

The North American Model (NAM) also shows accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday but limits the most intense snowfall bands, particularly north of New York City into the Hudson Valley and portions of northern New Jersey.

Other forecasting guidance suggests a more offshore storm track. A shift of even 50 to 100 miles east or west could dramatically change snowfall totals across the densely populated Interstate 95 corridor. A farther offshore path would likely reduce snow accumulations in New York City, while a closer track would increase the potential for significant impacts.

Areas of Greatest Concern

At this time, most projections indicate that southern and central New Jersey — including communities along the Jersey Shore — could see the highest snowfall totals. Areas farther north may experience greater variability depending on the precise storm track and the availability of cold air.

The National Weather Service continues to monitor the system and may issue additional winter weather alerts as confidence in the forecast increases.

Weekend Forecast Overview

Saturday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain during the afternoon. Evening precipitation may transition to snow as colder air moves into the region.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow during the day. Snow chances increase Sunday night, with temperatures hovering near freezing.

Preparing for the Storm

Although uncertainties remain, forecasters emphasize that residents should prepare for the possibility of accumulating snow and hazardous travel late Sunday into early Monday. Officials recommend monitoring updated forecasts, limiting unnecessary travel during peak snowfall, and ensuring homes and vehicles are equipped for winter weather.

Greater clarity is expected as newer forecast data becomes available. Until then, New Yorkers and New Jersey residents are urged to stay informed and remain prepared for a potentially high-impact winter storm.