USA vs. Canada: Expert Predictions and Betting Analysis for the 2026 Olympic Men’s Hockey Final

The gold medal in men’s ice hockey at the 2026 Winter Olympics will be decided Sunday as the United States faces Canada in one of the sport’s most storied rivalries. This marks the eighth time the two nations have met for Olympic gold and the first such showdown since the 2010 Vancouver Games, when Canada claimed victory on home ice.

Canada advanced to the final with a hard-fought 3–2 win over Finland in the semifinals, while the United States secured its place with a commanding 6–2 triumph over Slovakia. Historically, Canada has dominated Olympic men’s hockey, capturing nine gold medals since the sport’s introduction at the 1920 Antwerp Games. The United States, by comparison, has won two gold medals during that span.

According to odds posted by FanDuel Sportsbook, Canada enters the championship game as a slight favorite at -122 on the money line, while the United States is listed at +102. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5, with the Under favored at -152. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:10 a.m. ET in Milan.

Professional handicapper Matthew Severance, a respected NHL analyst, has weighed in on the matchup. Severance is coming off a highly successful NHL season in which he posted a 235-155-21 record, generating more than $2,000 in profit. Notably, he entered the Olympic break on a 26-12 run on NHL money-line selections. Given his recent performance, bettors have closely followed his Olympic projections.

For the gold-medal clash, Severance’s primary recommendation is the Under 5.5 goals. Historically, championship meetings between these two powerhouses have often been tightly contested. Of their seven previous Olympic gold-medal encounters, Canada has won six. Overall, in 19 Olympic meetings between the nations, Canada holds a 12-4-3 edge.

The United States enters the final with an unblemished 5-0 record in the tournament. Team USA won Group C by outscoring opponents 16-5, then edged Sweden 2-1 in overtime in the quarterfinals before defeating Slovakia in the semifinals. The Americans have demonstrated balanced scoring and defensive discipline throughout the competition.

Canada’s path has been equally impressive. After topping Group A with decisive victories over Czechia (5-0), Switzerland (5-1), and France (10-2), the Canadians survived a 4-3 overtime battle against Czechia in the quarterfinals and then eliminated Finland to reach the final. Their combination of offensive depth and experience on the international stage has reinforced their status as slight favorites.

With elite talent on both rosters and a long-standing rivalry at stake, Sunday’s final promises to be a showcase of high-level international hockey. While Canada’s historical success in gold-medal games cannot be ignored, the United States’ perfect tournament record suggests a tightly contested matchup.

Ultimately, betting markets anticipate a close game, and expert analysis points toward a lower-scoring affair. Whether Canada adds to its storied Olympic legacy or the United States captures a rare gold, the 2026 Olympic men’s hockey final is set to deliver a compelling chapter in one of sport’s greatest rivalries.