Global cocoa prices could take a dramatic turn in 2026, with the World Bank forecasting a sharp decline of more than 50% after years of record highs.
According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2026), cocoa prices are projected to drop from approximately $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about $3.80 in 2026 — a significant 51.3% decrease. Prices are expected to recover slightly to around $4.20 in 2027.
The anticipated drop is largely attributed to a rebound in global cocoa production following supply shortages that drove prices up over the past two years.
The report also highlights a broader trend, predicting a general decline in beverage commodity prices, including cocoa and coffee, after strong gains in 2024 and 2025.
Despite the expected fall, cocoa prices are likely to remain above long-term averages, reflecting continued uncertainty in global agricultural markets.
For major cocoa-producing countries like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, this shift could have serious implications. Lower prices may impact export revenues and reduce farmer incomes, especially if production rises significantly.
The World Bank further notes that global commodity prices will remain sensitive to economic conditions, geopolitical developments, and weather patterns affecting agricultural output.
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